As of October 2023, the quote for 1 btc to usd was $27,500, up 44.7% from the year’s low of $19,000, but still down 60.8% from the historical high of $69,000. Whether to convert or not needs to take into account the following quantitative indicators:
The daily RSI of Bitcoin is 46 (neutral to bearish), and the 4-hour MACD crosses below the zero axis. If it breaks below $26,500 (the 200-day moving average), it may test $24,800 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level). Conversely, a breakthrough of $28,500 (the September high) could trigger a $400 million short liquidation (data source: CoinGlass). The current 30-day volatility (standard deviation) is 2.5%, higher than that of gold (0.8%), but lower than the 12% during the LUNA collapse in 2022. On-chain data shows that “whale” addresses holding over 100 BTC have net transferred 8,000 BTC (approximately 220 million US dollars) to exchanges in the past seven days, setting a new record for the highest weekly selling pressure (Glassnode) in 2023. Meanwhile, the proportion of exchange reserves has risen to 12.5%, breaking through 12% for the first time this year.
Macroeconomic pressure is significant: The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond reached 4.8% (the highest since 2007), and historical regression models show that when the yield is greater than 4.5%, the median 30-day yield of Bitcoin is -9% (data from 2018 to 2023). The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in November has risen to 48% (CME FedWatch). If it does, the total market value of cryptocurrencies may shrink by 15%-20%, and Bitcoin may fall to the range of $24,000- $25,000 (Goldman Sachs model). But positive factors include a 75% approval probability for BlackRock’s Bitcoin Spot ETF (Bloomberg). If approved, it could bring a monthly net inflow of $2 billion (grayscale calculation), pushing 1 btc to usd to rebound to $32,000.
Miners’ behavior increases uncertainty: The total computing power of the Bitcoin network has reached 450 EH/s (historical peak), but the increase in electricity prices has caused some miners to lose over 500,000 US dollars per day (Foundry data). If the price drops below 25,000 US dollars, it may trigger miners to sell off (in June 2022, miners sold 30,000 BTC in a single month). The signals in the derivatives market are diverting: The open interest of Deribit’s $30,000 call option expiring in December has reached 52,000 BTC (with a nominal value of $1.43 billion), but the perpetual contract funding rate has turned negative (-0.015%), indicating that leveraged long positions are overheating. If the price drops below $26,000, it could trigger a $780 million long position liquidation.
Operation strategy suggestions:
Short-term cashing out: Sell 50% of the position, set the stop-loss at $26,200 (1% below the recent low), and retain cash to capture the rebound opportunity of $24,800.
Hedging plan: Hold BTC and simultaneously purchase a $25,000 put option (with a position of approximately 3% premium), locking in a maximum loss of 8%[(27,500-25,000- premium) /27,500];
Event bet: If the ETF approval news is announced, chase the rise to $30,000 and set the take-profit at $31,500 (the resistance level for 2023).
Historical cases warn: In March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a liquidity crisis. Bitcoin plunged by 37% within 24 hours, and the exchange spread widened to 20%. If a similar situation repeats, current holdings may face an instantaneous loss of 15% to 25%. Therefore, when holding spot goods, it is necessary to reserve a 20% position to deal with extreme fluctuations, or use Coinbase’s “Price protection” function (0.25% transaction fee) to lock in the selling price.
to sum up, 1 btc to usd is under macro pressure in the short term but benefits from the catalysis of ETFs in the long term. The conversion decision should balance risk appetite – if a potential decline of 10%-15% needs to be avoided, partial take-profit can be taken. If the target is above $30,000, it is recommended to hold and hedge against downside risks.